Strategy, analysis, and lessons from the sharp side of the market.
Using 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations to understand whether a brutal drawdown was bad luck or a broken edge.
Read more →Three methods to remove the vig from bookmaker odds, with a Python implementation.
Read more →Which route should you take as a bettor and which is more profitable? A look at both sides.
Read more →Optimal bet sizing for concurrent singles and round-robin parlay combinations using the generalized Kelly Criterion.
Read more →An Excel template implementing the generalized Kelly Criterion for singles and parlays up to 6 selections.
Read more →Implementing the generalized Kelly Criterion in Python for outright markets where exactly one outcome occurs.
Read more →An Excel template for the Real Kelly Criterion applied to outright betting on mutually exclusive outcomes.
Read more →Building a darts prediction model with Elo ratings, form metrics, and 2.5 million Monte Carlo simulations.
Read more →How the gap between advised and obtained odds can turn a profitable tipster into a losing proposition.
Read more →Background, poker career, and the transition from professional poker to sports betting.
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